Lula told a critical minerals council that nobody invests in a disordered economy and that capital demands seriousness. The warning lands on the Lula regime itself, days after a market circuit breaker, a higher inflation forecast and an admission that fiscal rules must change.
BRASILIA — President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told a government council on Thursday that “nobody is going to invest in a disordered economy,” and that investors “want to know whether we are serious.” The conditions he listed, fiscal responsibility and legal certainty, are ones the Lula regime itself must deliver.
Lula spoke at a meeting of the National Council for Industrialization of Critical and Strategic Minerals. “To attract investors, we have to have a tidy economy,” he said. He added that he does not want the State to be “the supreme master” of the exploration, transformation and industrialization of rare earths and critical minerals, and called for partnerships with other countries. “If we want to attract capital, we have to be serious,” he said.
Who is supposed to deliver the order
The council Lula was addressing is tied directly to the Presidency and, under the critical minerals policy that created it, can approve or veto projects and monitor changes in corporate control of mineral assets. A leader who says he does not want the State to be the supreme master of the sector was speaking to the body that gives the State that role.
Why it matters
Brazil holds some of the world’s biggest reserves of the minerals American industry wants outside Chinese supply chains, so whether capital arrives or leaves matters to U.S. companies and funds. See our earlier reporting on the R$ 12.4 billion that left the stock market in eight sessions and on the four-year forecast the market has already priced in.
The record
The numbers are public. On Oct. 26, the day after the runoff, the B3 stock exchange triggered its circuit breaker, the first time since 2020, according to Estadão/Broadcast. Finance Minister Dario Durigan authorized the Treasury to buy back public bonds to calm the market and said the government would “change the law or, if necessary, the Constitution” to pursue the center of its fiscal target. The same reporting tallied at least R$ 39.8 billion in adjustments needed in the 2027 budget to cover Lula’s campaign promises.
The Central Bank’s Focus survey of Nov. 3 now projects inflation of 5.22% for 2026, above the 4.5% ceiling of the target. It puts the year-end Selic rate at 13.5%, with the current rate at 13.75%, and the dollar at R$ 5.34, up from R$ 5.05 a month earlier. Growth forecasts fell for a third straight week, to 1.76%. The survey itself does not tie these changes to the election result. Durigan has said fiscal measures will be announced after Lula defines his new economic team, with the inauguration set for Jan. 5, and as we reported earlier this week, the Treasury does not accept speeches as payment.
Lula is right that no one invests in a disordered economy. The disorder he describes is measured in the regime’s own inflation forecast, its own bond buybacks and its own admission that the fiscal rules need rewriting, and a president who lists seriousness as a condition for capital is describing the test his regime is failing in public. Investors will look at the numbers.
The Watch Post Daily will continue to follow this story. Sources: public statements by President Lula at the National Council for Industrialization of Critical and Strategic Minerals on Nov. 5, 2026; Finance Minister Dario Durigan, via Estadão/Broadcast; Central Bank of Brazil Focus survey of Nov. 3, 2026; B3.
Featured image: Planalto panorama by Michel Temer, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.
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