Senator Flavio Bolsonaro says an economic crisis under Lula could force an early presidential vote, and says he's ready to run himself if that happens, according to Gazeta do Povo. He spoke after leaving Brazil under a Moraes order retaining his passport.
BRASILIA — Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) said he believes an economic crisis under President Lula’s government could force an early presidential election, and that he is ready to run for the office himself if that happens, according to an interview published Oct. 31 by Gazeta do Povo.
“I think my expectation is that the economy will be the main source of wear on the current government,” Bolsonaro said. “If he does what he promised, Brazil will go broke even faster.” Asked whether he would seek the presidency before the scheduled 2030 vote, he answered: “Whatever happens, I’ll be here, ready — including to run for president if that’s what’s needed.”
Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, left Brazil with his family after Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered authorities to retain his passport. He rejected the framing that he fled the country. “I didn’t leave Brazil,” he said. “I left for Brazil’s sake.”
Why it matters
Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America and a key U.S. partner on trade and regional security. A sitting senator predicting an early collapse of the government — and naming himself as a possible successor — is not a minor domestic story: it signals that Lula’s own political base sees the economic outlook as fragile enough to reopen the question of who governs Brazil before voters were due to decide again in 2030. For Washington, instability in Brasilia carries direct consequences for migration flows, dollar-denominated trade and intelligence cooperation in the hemisphere.
Bolsonaro compared the current economic strain to the one that battered Dilma Rousseff’s government in 2014 and 2015 — a crisis that ended in her impeachment — and said today’s version is worse. He also signaled support for Senator Rogerio Marinho (PL-RN) to lead the Senate, describing the chamber as the opposition’s “trincheira de resistência,” or “trench of resistance,” against the current administration.
The record
What is confirmed: Bolsonaro and his family are currently outside Brazil, and Moraes did order his passport retained — both matters of public record tied to an active judicial proceeding against him. What remains Bolsonaro’s own political prediction, not an established fact, is the claim that an economic crisis will topple Lula’s government before 2030 or that a new presidential race will open. Gazeta do Povo presented his remarks as his assessment and his stated intentions, not as confirmed outcomes, and The Watch Post Daily treats them the same way.
The episode fits a pattern this paper has tracked since Lula’s return to power: a government whose 2022 victory millions of Brazilians still dispute as the product of electronic ballot fraud, now facing one of its most visible opposition voices speaking from outside the country rather than from the Senate floor in Brasilia. Whether or not the economy forces Lula out early, a senator forced into exile by a Supreme Court order — while publicly weighing a run for president — is itself the story American readers should be watching.
The Watch Post Daily will continue to follow this story.
Featured image: Senador Flávio Bolsonaro gives a press interview, photo by Ton Molina/Agência Senado, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
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